El Niño and 44,000 fewer bags: the 2026/27 crop forecast
The USDA estimates 586,000 bags of 60 kg in 2025/26 and projects 542,000 in 2026/27 (−7.5%, −44,000) due to El Niño at flowering and harvest. December 2025 rains dropped ripe cherry to the ground; exports would rise from 535,100 to 543,000 bags.
